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THE SURPRISING CAUSE OF THE RISE & FALL OF OUR CRIME RATE?

America’s Real Criminal Element: Lead

New research finds Pb is the hidden villain behind violent crime, lower IQs, and even the ADHD epidemic. And fixing the problem is a lot cheaper than doing nothing.

By Kevin Drum/ Mother Jones/ January/February, 2013

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When Rudy Giuliani ran for mayor of New York City in 1993, he campaigned on a platform of bringing down crime and making the city safe again. It was a comfortable position for a former federal prosecutor with a tough-guy image, but it was more than mere posturing. Since 1960, rape rates had nearly quadrupled, murder had quintupled, and robbery had grown fourteenfold. New Yorkers felt like they lived in a city under siege.

 Throughout the campaign, Giuliani embraced a theory of crime fighting called “broken windows,” popularized a decade earlier by James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling in an influential article in The Atlantic. [8] “If a window in a building is broken and is left unrepaired,” they observed, “all the rest of the windows will soon be broken.” So too, tolerance of small crimes would create a vicious cycle ending with entire neighborhoods turning into war zones. But if you cracked down on small crimes, bigger crimes would drop as well.

Giuliani won the election, and he made good on his crime-fighting promises by selecting Boston police chief Bill Bratton as the NYPD’s new commissioner. Bratton had made his reputation as head of the New York City Transit Police, where he aggressively applied broken-windows policing to turnstile jumpers and vagrants in subway stations. With Giuliani’s eager support, he began applying the same lessons to the entire city, going after panhandlers, drunks, drug pushers, and the city’s hated squeegee men. And more: He decentralized police operations and gave precinct commanders more control, keeping them accountable with a pioneering system called CompStat that tracked crime hot spots in real time.

The results were dramatic. In 1996, the New York Times reported [9] that crime had plunged for the third straight year, the sharpest drop since the end of Prohibition. Since 1993, rape rates had dropped 17 percent, assault 27 percent, robbery 42 percent, and murder an astonishing 49 percent. Giuliani was on his way to becoming America’s Mayor and Bratton was on the cover of Time. It was a remarkable public policy victory.

But even more remarkable is what happened next. Shortly after Bratton’s star turn, political scientist John DiIulio warned that the echo of the baby boom would soon produce a demographic bulge of millions of young males that he famously dubbed “juvenile super-predators [10].” Other criminologists nodded along. But even though the demographic bulge came right on schedule, crime continued to drop. And drop. And drop. By 2010, violent crime rates in New York City had plunged 75 percent from their peak in the early ’90s.

All in all, it seemed to be a story with a happy ending, a triumph for Wilson and Kelling’s theory and Giuliani and Bratton’s practice. And yet, doubts remained. For one thing, violent crime actually peaked in New York City in 1990, four years before the Giuliani-Bratton era. By the time they took office, it had already dropped 12 percent.

The PB Effect

What happens when you expose a generation of kids to high lead levels? Crime and teen pregnancy data two decades later tell a startling story.

Second, and far more puzzling, it’s not just New York that has seen a big drop in crime. In city after city, violent crime peaked in the early ’90s and then began a steady and spectacular decline. Washington, DC, didn’t have either Giuliani or Bratton, but its violent crime rate has dropped 58 percent since its peak. Dallas’ has fallen 70 percent. Newark: 74 percent. Los Angeles: 78 percent.

There must be more going on here than just a change in policing tactics in one city. But what?
There are, it turns out, plenty of theories. When I started research for this story, I worked my way through a pair of thick [11] criminology tomes [12]. One chapter regaled me with the “exciting possibility” that it’s mostly a matter of economics: Crime goes down when the economy is booming and goes up when it’s in a slump. Unfortunately, the theory doesn’t seem to hold water—for example, crime rates have continued to drop recently despite our prolonged downturn.

Another chapter suggested that crime drops in big cities were mostly a reflection of the crack epidemic of the ’80s finally burning itself out. A trio of authors identified three major “drug eras” in New York City, the first dominated by heroin, which produced limited violence, and the second by crack, which generated spectacular levels of it. In the early ’90s, these researchers proposed, the children of CrackGen switched to marijuana, choosing a less violent and more law-abiding lifestyle. As they did, crime rates in New York and other cities went down.

Another chapter told a story of demographics: As the number of young men increases, so does crime. Unfortunately for this theory, the number of young men increased during the ’90s, but crime dropped anyway.

There were chapters in my tomes on the effect of prison expansion. On guns and gun control. On family. On race. On parole and probation. On the raw number of police officers. It seemed as if everyone had a pet theory. In 1999, economist Steven Levitt, later famous as the coauthor of Freakonomics, teamed up with John Donohue to suggest that crime dropped because of Roe v. Wade [13]; legalized abortion, they argued, led to fewer unwanted babies, which meant fewer maladjusted and violent young men two decades later.

But there’s a problem common to all of these theories: It’s hard to tease out actual proof. Maybe the end of the crack epidemic contributed to a decline in inner-city crime, but then again, maybe it was really the effect of increased incarceration, more cops on the beat, broken-windows policing, and a rise in abortion rates 20 years earlier. After all, they all happened at the same time.

To address this problem, the field of econometrics gives researchers an enormous toolbox of sophisticated statistical techniques. But, notes statistician and conservative commentator Jim Manzi in his recent book Uncontrolled [14], econometrics consistently fails to explain most of the variation in crime rates. After reviewing 122 known field tests, Manzi found that only 20 percent demonstrated positive results for specific crime-fighting strategies, and none of those positive results were replicated in follow-up studies.

 (Continued-Read Entire Article Here)


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THE REAL ENEMY: GLOBAL CAPITALISM

Murdering the Wretched of the Earth

By Chris Hedges/ Truthout/ August 14, 2013

Global Ruling Class

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Radical Islam is the last refuge of the Muslim poor. The mandated five prayers a day give the only real structure to the lives of impoverished believers. The careful rituals of washing before prayers in the mosque, the strict moral code, along with the understanding that life has an ultimate purpose and meaning, keep hundreds of millions of destitute Muslims from despair. The fundamentalist ideology that rises from oppression is rigid and unforgiving. It radically splits the world into black and white, good and evil, apostates and believers. It is bigoted and cruel to women, Jews, Christians and secularists, along with gays and lesbians. But at the same time it offers to those on the very bottom of society a final refuge and hope. The massacres of hundreds of believers in the streets of Cairo signal not only an assault against a religious ideology, not only a return to the brutal police state of Hosni Mubarak, but the start of a holy war that will turn Egypt and other poor regions of the globe into a caldron of blood and suffering. 

The only way to break the hold of radical Islam is to give its followers a stake in the wider economy, the possibility of a life where the future is not dominated by grinding poverty, repression and hopelessness. If you live in the sprawling slums of Cairo or the refugee camps in Gaza or the concrete hovels in New Delhi, every avenue of escape is closed. You cannot get an education. You cannot get a job. You do not have the resources to marry. You cannot challenge the domination of the economy by the oligarchs and the generals. The only way left for you to affirm yourself is to become a martyr, or shahid. Then you will get what you cannot get in life—a brief moment of fame and glory. And while what will take place in Egypt will be defined as a religious war, and the acts of violence by the insurgents who will rise from the bloodied squares of Cairo will be defined as terrorism, the engine for this chaos is not religion but the collapsing economy of a world where the wretched of the earth are to be subjugated and starved or shot. The lines of battle are being drawn in Egypt and across the globe. Adli Mansour, the titular president appointed by the military dictator of Egypt, Gen. Abdul-Fattah el-Sisi, has imposed a military-led government, a curfew and a state of emergency. They will not be lifted soon. 

The lifeblood of radical movements is martyrdom. The Egyptian military has provided an ample supply. The faces and the names of the sanctified dead will be used by enraged clerics to call for holy vengeance. And as violence grows and the lists of martyrs expand, a war will be ignited that will tear Egypt apart. Police, Coptic Christians, secularists, Westerners, businesses, banks, the tourism industry and the military will become targets. Those radical Islamists who were persuaded by the Muslim Brotherhood that electoral politics could work and brought into the system will go back underground, and many of the rank and file of the Muslim Brotherhood will join them. Crude bombs will be set off. Random attacks and assassinations by gunmen will puncture daily life in Egypt as they did in the 1990s when I was in Cairo for The New York Times, although this time the attacks will be wider and more fierce, far harder to control or ultimately crush.

What is happening in Egypt is a precursor to a wider global war between the world’s elites and the world’s poor, a war caused by diminishing resources, chronic unemployment and underemployment, overpopulation, declining crop yields caused by climate change, and rising food prices. Thirty-three percent of Egypt’s 80 million people are 14 or younger, and millions live under or just above the poverty line, which the World Bank sets at a daily income of $2 in that nation. The poor in Egypt spend more than half their income on food—often food that has little nutritional value. An estimated 13.7 million Egyptians, or 17 percent of the population, suffered from food insecurity in 2011, compared with 14 percent in 2009, according to a report by the U.N. World Food Program and the Egyptian Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). Malnutrition is endemic among poor children, with 31 percent under 5 years old stunted in growth. Illiteracy runs at more than 70 percent.

In “Les Misérables” Victor Hugo described war with the poor as one between the “egoists” and the “outcasts.” The egoists, Hugo wrote, had “the bemusement of prosperity, which blunts the sense, the fear of suffering which is some cases goes so far as to hate all sufferers, and unshakable complacency, the ego so inflated that is stifles the soul.” The outcasts, who were ignored until their persecution and deprivation morphed into violence, had “greed and envy, resentment at the happiness of others, the turmoil of the human element in search of personal fulfillment, hearts filled with fog, misery, needs, and fatalism, and simple, impure ignorance.”

The belief systems the oppressed embrace can be intolerant, but these belief systems are a response to the injustice, state violence and cruelty inflicted on them by the global elites. Our enemy is not radical Islam. It is global capitalism. It is a world where the wretched of the earth are forced to bow before the dictates of the marketplace, where children go hungry as global corporate elites siphon away the world’s wealth and natural resources and where our troops and U.S.-backed militaries carry out massacres on city streets. Egypt offers a window into the coming dystopia. The wars of survival will mark the final stage of human habitation of the planet. And if you want to know what they will look like, visit any city morgue in Cairo.

AP/Ahmed Gomaa
(Boldface added by BPR Editor)
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Sounds Fair

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Special Report: THE NEVER-ENDING “WAR ON TERROR” HOAX

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By Arlen Grossman/ The Big Picture Report

The specter of terrorism has been used to frighten Americans for many years, and exponentially since the attacks on September 11, 2001. But is the “War on Terror” for real, or is it a monumental hoax and scam? The evidence tells the story.

Remember the bomb that went off in the Mall of America in 2003 that killed hundreds of shoppers? Or the nerve gas that killed dozens of baseball fans at Wrigley Field in 2010?  Or the nuclear device that killed thousands and shut down Disneyland last year?

I don’t remember those either–because they never happened. They would have been easy to pull off if there were well-organized terror groups that had infiltrated America. Airports are relatively secure, but what about the rest of the country? Common sense tells us there is no realistic way to prevent a strongly motivated terror group from targeting the many places Americans congregate in large numbers each and every day.

That is, if there were foreign terrorist groups inside this country. Apparently, there isn’t. The most likely scenario is that 9/11 was a well-planned, well-coordinated, one-time event orchestrated by Osama bin Laden. Al-Qaida shot its wad, Osama bin Laden went into hiding, and they had nothing else left. That would explain why we haven’t seen any well-organized acts of terror on American soil since 2001.

Instead, the American people have been conditioned to worry and be scared whenever the word “terrorism” is mentioned. So effective has been this fear tactic we have spent trillions, employed millions, militarized the “homeland,” surrendered our constitutional rights, and allowed many of our citizens to slide into economic despair and poverty as a result. Benjamin Franklin warned us: giving up our liberty to secure a little temporary safety, leaves us vulnerable to losing both.

Powerful and influential special interests have profited immensely from the “War on Terror” since 2001. Most Americans will remember the days after 9/11 and the speculation that radical Muslim “sleeper cells” were scattered across the country with plans to detonate nuclear, chemical and biological weapons at airports and everywhere else. America geared up to defend itself and hasn’t slowed down since, even though the perceived danger of a highly organized and sophisticated terrorist plan to destroy America has never materialized.

None of this is to deny the existence of terrorism and its potential danger. There has always been “terrorism” and always will be. Angry groups of people who lack armies, jet fighters, and other significant military advantages feel the need to rely on acts of “terror” to get the attention of their victims. The problem is that the War on Terror has been hugely exaggerated to play upon the fears of the American people and build a giant military/industrial/security complex from which  significant, well-positioned special interests benefit and have a strong vested interest in perpetuating.

Fighting terrorism requires smart, efficient police work, but not an enormous, oppressive police state. We don’t need every person’s mail, phone calls, and emails tracked by the government, our license plates and movements monitored, our constitutional rights eviscerated, nor do we need to be probed and fondled just to ride on an airplane. We’ve overreacted to the terrorist threat and turned our country into an un-American police/ security state.

If the War on Terror is a hoax and a scam, who wants to keep it alive? The list of economic and political beneficiaries is vast. Let’s start with the military/industrial complex, and the $3.3 trillion the Pentagon has paid to defense contractors since 9/11, (according to George Washington University). Just last year, for example, Boeing received $23.5 billion and Lockheed Martin $22.8 billion in military contracts. The U.S. military is deployed in more than 150 nations, and is attacking more of them with drones than ever before (which begs the important question: are we discouraging or inspiring terrorists with our far-flung military adventures?).

The political beneficiaries of the war on terror are the administration in power and the tough-on-terror politicians that populate both major parties.  By instilling fear in the population, the government (no matter which party is in charge) can more readily limit criticism  and make end runs around constitutional protections. The George W. Bush Administration used the terrorist trauma to start two wars and shred important parts of our Constitution. The Obama Administration has been no better. The First Ten Amendments can now be rightfully called “The Bill of Limited Rights.” Right-wing politicians especially benefit, intimidating opponents and winning votes with hawkish rhetoric and scare tactics.

The news media, too, profits from the War on Terror, enjoying a spike in ratings whenever it covers stories of terror threats, real or imagined, as well as armed conflict around the world. The media can’t get enough of scary terrorist news.

And what about the private contractors and government agencies whose existence depends on a thriving War on Terror? Where once we had the CIA (foreign) and the FBI (domestic), there were, according to a 2010 Washington Post report, 17 intelligence agencies. The Post two-year investigation reported “some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States…An estimated 854,000 people, nearly 1.5 times as many people as live in Washington, D.C., hold top-secret security clearances.”

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John Jonik

Let’s put all of this in perspective:. The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) reports that, excluding the 9/11 atrocities, fewer than 500 people died in the U.S. from terrorist attacks between 1970 and 2010. In comparison, over 30,000 Americans are killed by guns annually, and a similar number in automobile fatalities each year. In the last five years Americans were four times more likely to be struck by lightning than killed by a terrorist. Is the relatively small risk of terrorist attack worth decimating our treasury, as well as our long-standing values of  personal liberty and privacy?

Some may say it is these efforts at combating terrorism that has kept us relatively safe since 2001. But of the estimated 50 terrorist plots foiled since 9/11, none have been of a large scale, nor originating from a well-organized plot from al-Qaida. In this country, acts of terror typically take the form of  a “lone wolf” or two or three independent young men eager to avenge what they perceive to be American aggression in the Muslim world. Most foiled attempts originated from sting operations led by an agent provocateur—an FBI operative instigating terrorist action.

To some, It sounds far-fetched to think of the War on Terror as a hoax and a scam, but it would not be unprecedented. Just look back on our own history: “Remember the Maine!” (Spanish-American War), The Gulf of Tonkin (Vietnam), WMDs (Iraq). Each of these were false or questionable scenarios leading to unnecessary, illegal, and costly wars.

Clearly, a large number of powerful and influential special interests are heavily invested in the national defense and homeland security gravy train. We are assured “The War on Terror” will end when the threat of terror is eliminated–which, when you think about it, translates to “never.” Unless Americans take a hard, critical look at the reality of the War on Terror, the financial, political and emotional cost will overwhelm and destroy us, and a great deal of the rest of the world as well.

“War is a racket… easily the most profitable, surely the most vicious… It is the only one in which the profits are reckoned in dollars and the losses in lives….It is conducted for the benefit of the very few, at the expense of the very many. Out of war a few people make huge fortunes.”

Major General Smedley Butler, U.S. Marines,  from his book War Is a Racket, (1935)

Also published in OpEdNews, August 16, 2013

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Japan’s “China Syndrome” is “Beyond Containment”

“Very likely some of Fukushima’s melted cores have moved into the earth — It’s beyond containment right now.”
Paul Gunter director of the reactor oversight project at Beyond Nuclear: “Indications are right now that the reactor structures themselves have been breached.
“It’s very likely that some of the radioactive material — the melted cores — have moved into the earth.
“So it’s beyond containment right now.
“I think that’s the tragedy that we see unfolding as Fukushima’s radioactive water crisis is only beginning.”

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Democracy Has Disappeared

BPR Quote of the Day:

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selectsmart.com

“Jimmy Carter defends Snowden”- Daily Kos

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Why Costco Workers Aren’t Striking

130805123117-worker-pay-620xaCNN.Money.com: Worker Wages: Wendy’s vs Wal-Mart vs Costco

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We’re Coming Back….Stay tuned…….

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On Hiatus

The Big Picture Report is taking an indefinite leave of absence in order for the editor (me) to devote more time to several other projects. A big Thank You to all who have been reading the BPR blog. I expect The Big Picture Report to be back, and will make sure you know it when that happens.

Thanks again, 

Arlen

(PoliTalk Sunday, 10-11am PT, on KRXA540AM radio will continue. Info on that here.) 

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