{Democrats will have a wave election, winning the House and Senate. But only if Donald Trump allows a free and fair election. He will try every trick he can to sabotage and deny the legality of the vote. And we know he’ll stop at nothing, including calling in the troops.–-TBPR Editor}

With fewer than 50 days until the midterms, Democrats have developed a clear advantage over Republicans as the president has lost the public’s trust on the economy, according to a new national poll from The New York Times and Siena University.

President Trump’s lingering unpopularity and intense frustration over his management of cost-of-living issues, in particular, have deepened Republican vulnerabilities as Democrats push to win control of both the House and Senate.

Likely voters favored Democratic candidates over Republicans by close to 9 percentage points in their congressional district — a metric that is closely watched by both parties as a leading indicator of political momentum.

[Follow all of the latest polls heading into November’s elections.]

Mr. Trump’s approval rating continued to languish at 38 percent among likely voters, essentially unchanged from the lows it sank to after he went to war with Iran. A majority of voters disapproved of Mr. Trump’s handling of every major issue included in the poll: the economy, immigration, tariffs, the war and, especially, the cost of living.

And voters said they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on not just health care and foreign wars but also on the two issues that powered Mr. Trump’s 2024 victory: immigration and the economy.Based on a New York Times/Siena poll of 1,503 likely voters nationwide conducted Sept. 8 to 13. The gray segment is for voters who did not respond or said they didn’t know. Margins are calculated using unrounded percentages. Questions about the cost of living, foreign wars, artificial intelligence, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, health care and the deficit were each asked of only half the sample.

The political conditions found by the poll suggest the makings of a potential Democratic wave in November. But that outcome is far from assured. Thanks in part to gerrymandering, relatively few House seats are truly competitive, and in the run-up to the midterms, Republicans drew new House maps in several states favorable to their candidates. And even a nearly 9-point advantage would not guarantee flipping some of the Senate seats Democrats are counting on in 2026 — Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa — which Mr. Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Still, independent voters have especially soured on Mr. Trump. Just 10 percent of them said the economy was better today than a year ago and only 27 percent approve of Mr. Trump’s job performance overall. And in the fight for Congress, 57 percent of independent voters said they planned to vote for a Democrat compared to only 34 percent for a Republican.

The cost of living is dragging down Republicans more than any other issue, as even some Republican voters lose faith in Mr. Trump’s economy. Only 28 percent of voters said they approved of how Mr. Trump has managed matters related to affordability.

What questions were asked? Who answers polls?

Even Mr. Trump’s most loyal and durable demographic base — white voters without college degrees — disapproved of the president’s handling of the cost of living by a wide 21-percentage point margin.

And opposition to Mr. Trump is intensifying. The survey was the first Times/Siena poll in his second term to find a majority of voters, 52 percent, saying that they “strongly” disapproved of him.

The war in Iran, which has driven gas prices above $4 a gallon, is also weighing down the president. More than three-quarters of independent voters said that they disapproved of his handling of the conflict, and so did nearly a quarter of Mr. Trump’s own 2024 voters.

Yet the survey found that the G.O.P.’s vulnerabilities extend beyond Mr. Trump.

Voters see Republicans broadly as more extreme, more elitist and more corrupt than Democrats, according to the poll. And while voters continue to have doubts about both parties, they aligned more with the Democratic Party on both cultural and economic matters than the Republican Party in the survey.

One glimmer of good news for Republicans is that the political situation has not deteriorated further since the spring. Yes, Mr. Trump is unpopular. But he is not more so than he was five months ago. The Democratic Party is viewed as too far left. And Republicans are generally outpolling Mr. Trump — including on how they would handle particular issues.

Still, by an 11-point margin, voters said they would prefer for Democrats to control Congress after the November election.

“All I know is right now, the Republicans are in power and I’m not really seeing the change I wanted to see,” said Elizabeth Gloden, 21, an independent college student in Arizona who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024 but is planning to vote Democratic this year. “I’m Gen Z. I am in the area where we want to move out of our parents’ houses, but we can’t because everything costs a million dollars,” she added. “I think it’d be a good idea to just see the other side what they can do.”

There were indications that the Democrats were winning back groups that they had lost ground with in the 2024 presidential race. The current Democratic strength in the battle for Congress was being driven heavily in the poll by younger voters (those under 30 favored Democrats by 35 percentage points), Hispanic voters (43 points) and independent voters (23 points) — all groups the party had seen sagging support from two years ago.

Mr. Trump’s approval rating among voters under 30 stands at an abysmal 18 percent.

The economy ranked as the top issue for voters. Only 14 percent of voters said the economy was better than it was a year ago — down from 31 percent who said so in January.

The erosion among Republicans is especially stark. While 72 percent of Republicans said in January that the economy was better than it had been the prior year, only 29 percent of Republicans said so now.

Mr. Trump has tried to wave off those concerns. “This has been the most successful two years financially and every other way in the history of the presidency,” Mr. Trump claimed in his address last week at a convention in Dallas.

Voters are not buying it.

“I actually feel really gaslit because I’m constantly hearing from Republicans, from conservatives just in the media in general, that ‘don’t believe your lying eyes, everything’s great, wages have increased,’ all of these different things,” said Meghan Demetrios, a 40-year-old independent voter in South Carolina.

“I feel like I’m super poor in America,” she continued. “I got a new career job about nine months ago, and I was so proud of myself and so excited. And I thought everything was going to get a little bit better. And I turn around, and I find that every single bill I have has gone up.”

She plans to vote Democratic this year.

All told, 71 percent of voters disapprove of how Mr. Trump is handling the cost of living while 28 percent approve — a net disapproval of 43 percentage points, which is 13 points worse than it was January.

CONTINUED…….

{Complete article here: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/15/us/politics/trump-midterm-election-poll.html?eafs_enabled=false}