By Arlen Grossman
It’s amazing the amount of worrying going on about the prospect of Donald Trump winning the presidency. Granted, it would be a disaster if he did win, unless you want a president who is a liar, a cheater, a narcissist, unqualified, stupid, and racist, with fascistic tendencies.
But Donald Trump will never be elected President of the United States.
Here’s why:
(1) If Trump won the Republican nomination, the party establishment and the conservative ideologues would be horrified. He is far too unpredictable and unreliable to fit their mold. There would undoubtably be a third-party run with a candidate who would appeal to the conservative base. That would mean a three-way race between a Republican (Trump), a staunch conservative (Paul Ryan? Mitt Romney?), and the Democratic nominee. That would split the Republican/conservative vote, making it easy for the Democratic nominee to win a plurality, if not a majority, of the votes.
(2) If the Republican Party were to block Donald Trump from becoming their nominee, instead nominating a more reliable right-wing candidate, you can bet Donald Trump–with an ego bigger than Texas–would not sit out the presidential race. In this scenario, Trump would certainly run as a third-party independent, and as in #1 above, split the Republican/conservative vote and present the presidency on a platter to the Democratic nominee.
Nothing has been as unpredictable as politics in this election cycle, and strange happenings will probably continue to occur until November 8. Still, It’s hard to imagine one of these two scenarios above not occurring, and in neither one does Donald Trump become President. Take a deep breath, America, we will not see a President Trump, but more likely another President Clinton or a President Sanders.
Also Published at OpEd News March 5
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The party pre-selected Clinton. The rest is expensive theater. Who here DIDN’T see her coming? How many years has she been campaigning? Too many to know, exactly. No biggie. Let’s just get through this fiasco in mostly one piece. Life is short.
________________________________________ From: Arlen Grossman [agross408@aol.com] Sent: Thursday, March 3, 2016 11:31 PM To: ray@1.mu; comment+r3vtyv8tvxq23a9kuirzrdm@comment.wordpress.com Cc: joshburton410@hotmail.com Subject: Re: [New post] President Trump? Aint Going to Happen
Ed, I love you dearly, but you are way too sensitive when it comes to Hillary. I in no way was trying to demean or disrespect Hillary. I was just using last names for both Democratic candidates, and rather than saying President Clinton, I just wanted to be more precise so I said “another President Clinton,” which indeed she would be. I had no intention of tying her to Bill, other than they both share the same last name. You’ll have to take my word on that one. That said, I will admit–no surprise to you–that I would prefer Bernie over Hillary, because he offers the radical change necessary to really take on the system. But I do see the handwriting on the wall, that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. And when that happens, I certainly will support her and strongly hope that she wins.
I don’t think (1) is going to happen. If Trump does win the nomination, the GOP establishment will realize that a three-way between GOP establishment candidate, Trump, and a Democrat will guarantee a Democratic victory. Although GOP establishment may be horrified at the thought of Trump being its nominee, they’re probably more horrified at the thought of President Clinton (or Sanders if he is somehow the nominee).
And I think that Trump does have a chance against Hillary, because he has the potential to peel off some Democratic voters who lean to the right, and a significant portion of independents. He is also likely to move to the center for the general election and will seem less extreme and more electable.
Ed, I love you dearly, but you are way too sensitive when it comes to Hillary. I in no way was trying to demean or disrespect Hillary. I was just using last names for both Democratic candidates, and rather than saying President Clinton, I just wanted to be more precise so I said “another President Clinton,” which indeed she would be. I had no intention of tying her to Bill, other than they both share the same last name. You’ll have to take my word on that one. That said, I will admit–no surprise to you–that I would prefer Bernie over Hillary, because he offers the radical change necessary to really take on the system. But I do see the handwriting on the wall, that Hillary will be the Democratic nominee. And when that happens, I certainly will support her and strongly hope that she wins.
Hi Arlen! You are sending the Big Picture Report from Cuba these days? I liked everything that you said except for the one undeserved prejudicial invective directed at Hillary Rodham which I would have thought that you might have the courtesy and decency to resist. I can see that you, like Chris Hayes and Rachael Maddow, are still looking for ways to defame her enough to detract any support away from her in hopes that it will be diverted to Bernie. Regardless, I for one am truly glad that Bernie is still in the race and I hope he keeps his message going to the end. What I really hope is that he continues to serve the cause of all of us who have loved the Socialist Movements in all the countries that have been able to give their people the benefits of that kind of political culture. After Super Tuesday, Bernie started talking more like the Great Social Servant that he is and was not so interested in talking about winning the numbers of supporters that could cause the revolution which we all want to see and only Hillary seems to know that it will take an hellacious arduous hard work over many many years to accomplish while the followers of Bernie, exactly like the Obamites they follow so exactly to the same drum, still want somebody to give them change in a day and give it to them now and they, like the Obamites before them have no heart nor soul, nor intestinal fortitude for the long term job ahead that is required. What I am afraid of is that, after too many years (about since 1980), the Democrats have languished in self pity, self loathing and most of all, in complacency and cynicism. If they continue to do that, what chances will Hillary have to make any more difference than Obama? Will Hillary rise to the historical greatness that I have seen in her all along? Or will she do exactly like Obama and just try to stay alive and survive her Presidency? I admit, Bernie would be the one to be more willing to take the risk of being character assassinated or really assassinated by the Rabid Right Wing. I think that Hillary has been comfortable at just surviving to make it to the next step for a long time. I hope that it has not filled her with as much complacency and cynicism as the average Democrat and probably 9/10ths of the Bernie Bots (conservatively speaking)…. I wish us all good luck. We have seen so little good luck for the ideals of our Father’s Democratic Party since 11/22/1963, it is difficult to imagine what it might look like. In the mean time, please stop trying to make one person out of Hillary and Bill. They do NOT share the same political ideals no matter how much you need to believe that. Cheers! edward
Good work Arlen!